In our fast-paced environment, leaders spend 40% of their time making decisions (McKinsey, 2023). This is amidst an operating environment that sees our reference points changing constantly. In a world where capability requirements can barely stay ahead of skills obsolescence. And decision-making fatigue blurs a leader’s capacity to impact.
Do we have the decision-making framework in place to support our executives?
The Model of Leadership™ provides a structured decision-making framework to help leaders navigate complexity and de-risk leadership blind spots. Decision velocity can overwhelm leaders, so it is critical to outline the anchors that allow efficient and effective choices to be connected to data, evidenced by science, and relevant to everyday outcomes.
According to a recent study of more than 14,000 employees and business leaders across 17 countries by Oracle and NYT best-selling author Seth Stephens-Davidowitz,
Research published in Harvard Business Review reveals that more often than not, executives accept roles without ever having discussed decision making in interviews (2024). While the model applies to all decision making, at Future Leadership, we especially use this model when we are making tough decisions about talent.
Traditional leadership frameworks often overemphasise past performance (what someone has done) while overlooking future potential (what someone could do under new or more complex conditions). The model by Future Leadership™ addresses this gap by recognising three interlocking elements that predict a leader’s future success:
By broadening the lens from “what have you done before?” to “how might you think, learn, and perform under evolving conditions?” this model offers a practical, research-based approach for forecasting leadership effectiveness.
Context sets the stage in which leaders operate. It includes:
Leaders who thrive in one context might struggle in another. For instance, an executive in a fast-paced tech company may excel in driving innovation and rapid growth, whereas a leader in a large, established corporation might be more adept at managing complex hierarchies and ensuring operational stability. Research reported by the Harvard Business Review (2018) has shown that organisations using context-based approaches to leadership selection are 3x more likely to see a better fit than those using generic “one-size-fits-all” models.
Implication: Organisations should tailor their evaluation and development efforts to each leadership role’s unique context. In short, a strong candidate is not just “well-rounded” but “well-suited” to the specific challenges ahead.
Capability refers to the knowledge, skills, behaviours, and mindsets leaders have developed and demonstrated over time. It includes:
Crucially, capabilities are transferrable across roles and contexts, though application in new or complex environments is not always guaranteed. From a predictive standpoint, past performance matters most when a leader has had prior experience with similar challenges. However, as roles become more complex, an over-reliance on past success can be misleading if the future task environment is vastly different.
Implication: Evaluate a leader’s proven capabilities alongside their willingness (and readiness) to flex these capabilities under different scenarios. Past achievements are important, but capability must be seen in context.
Perhaps the most distinguishing feature of the Future Leadership Model is its focus on Capacity, defined as a leader’s potential to handle increasing levels of complexity, ambiguity, and challenge. It encompasses:
As Forbes noted in 2022, “What sets excellent leaders apart is the way they embrace and work with complexity. It’s not what you know, but how you think.” Leaders must expand their mindsets—becoming more collaborative, self-aware, and better able to think strategically. Doing so fosters the vertical development necessary to handle new leadership demands as organisations evolve.
Implication: When selecting or developing a leader, it’s not enough to ask, “Have they done it before?” We must ask, “Can they grow in complexity to meet the new challenge?” If there’s a mismatch between the complexity of the role and the leader’s current stage of development, performance likely suffers.
The Model of Leadership™ underscores that true leadership success is more than past achievements. At its core, it’s about:
These three elements interact. A leader with ample capacity but no relevant background may still thrive if they learn swiftly. Conversely, a leader with a stellar track record may falter in a new, high-complexity environment if they lack the capacity to adapt. Equally, context drives which capabilities matter most and highlights the level of complexity a leader must manage.
Selection and Assessment
Leadership Development
Sustainability and Future-Readiness
As organisations face unprecedented levels of disruption, Future Leadership’s Model of Leadership provides a roadmap to identify and grow leaders who can thrive both now and in the future. By accounting for Context, Capability, and Capacity, this model captures the complexity of modern leadership demands and highlights the critical importance of ongoing development.
Ultimately, leadership is not solely about what you have accomplished; it is about who you are becoming. Equipped with the right mix of context-specific insights, track record analysis, and capacity-building strategies, leaders—and the organisations they serve—will be far more prepared to succeed in the face of uncertainty and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
References